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Monday, May 10, 2004

CALIFORNIA POLL === MORE BAD NEWS FOR DEMS:

Although this poll probably over represents the President's chances, these are horrible numbers for Sen Kerry in a state that he must not only win, but not be forced to have to spend any real amount of time or money there.

SEN KERRY: 45%

PRES BUSH: 44%

Hopefully, this poll will prompt more interested parties to perform more polls to reinforce or discredit, these findings.

The second part is this poll isn't as devastating as the first to Dems, but it still is something they should watch.

Apparently, incumbent Dem Senator Barbara Boxer, currently only enjoys a 9 pt advantage over Republican rival, and ex-Sec of State Bill Jones.

Although the advantage is definitely Boxer's, it is possible that California still has a bit of a bad taste left towards Democrats from recalling Gray Davis. If Jones can ride the anti-establishment wave created by Gov Schwarzenegger, and possibly get something of a bounce from W, (should he decide to go for the state), Boxer could be in trouble.

Right now, Jones needs to start an all media campaign against Boxer. Even for California, Boxer is still way left, and Jones needs to start hitting for that.

He also needs to use the immensely popular Republican Gov to raise money and help make in roads in Hispanic communities, where Schwarzenegger enjoys large support for a Republican.

At the very least, Jones should be able to force Dems to spend money defending a Sen seat they never thought they would have to defend, putting them off balance and helping Republicans nationally.

Until more polling or new developments, this state remains solid for Boxer.


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Sunday, May 09, 2004

SENATE 2004 UPDATE:

MURKOWSKI AND KNOWLES TIED IN LATEST ALASKAN SENATE RACE POLL


Sen Lisa Murkowski has finally caught former Alaskan Gov, and 2004 Dem rival, Tony Knowles. The latest poll from KTUU TV shows Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Tony Knowles dead even at 44.6% each.

The good news for Murkowski and fellow Republicans is the continuing trend these polls reflect. A couple of months ago, Knowles led by as many as 6-8 points. Since than, Murkowski has been able to successfully chip away at Knowles' lead each month.

If Murkowski can keep this momentum going, this seat should stay Republican.

DR. COBURN WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF BRAD CARSON IN OKLAHOMA:

Although this poll is only published on former Rep Tom Coburn's homepage, it still isn't good news for Dem Senate hopeful, Brad Carson.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2004

WICTORY WEDNESDAY:

Take some time or money to devote towards four more years of George W Bush.

CLICK HERE TO KEEP AMERICA SAFE, AND HER ENEMIES ON THE RUN
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KERRY NOW BEING DOUBTED BY OWN PARTY:

This is pretty fascinating. Kerry's numbers nationally aren't that bad (he remains about 4-5 pts behind Bush nationally). However, it appears as if his own Party is beginning to have second thoughts about their own candidate.

This is another interesting article, where a staunch Democrat once again pleads with Kerry to try to be honest. It appears that this writer wants to "shake" Kerry, and say "Stop, please stop".

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Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar, back on top, with large lead:

It looks as if Attorney General Ken Salazar's lead is larger than earlier expected. Not being in Colorado, I am unaware if Salazar, or any of the candidates for that matter have been on the air advertising at all.

COLORADO:

Salazar (D): 48%

Schaffer (R): 37%
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Salazar (D): 52%

Coors (R): 36%

The best thing Republicans can do for themselves in Colorado, is try to wrap the primary up quickly and quietly, to better rally around a single candidate.
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Thursday, April 15, 2004

NEW 2004 SENATE NUMBERS:

Although these numbers don't mean much now, this simply isn't good news for Democrats, due to the large number Democratic retirement in solid Bush country.

Sen Campbell's retirement in Colorado needs to be something Dems can count on picking up if they want a shot at taking back the Senate in 2004.

COLORADO:

Salazar (D): 47%

Coors (R): 41%

FLORIDA:

McCollum (R): 42%

Castor (D): 41%
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Castor (D): 43%

Martinez (R): 40%
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Some Interesting Polling

Real Clear Politics has some interesting state by state polling out. Bush appears to have lost some ground in FL, but actually has a 4pt lead in NJ.
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Monday, April 12, 2004

COUPLE OF GOOD SENATE RACE LINKS:

HERE,, here, and here.
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Thursday, April 08, 2004

GOP FINALLY GETS SOME GOOD NEWS ON THE SENATE OUTLOOK:

Republicans finally got a bit of good news, after weeks of enduring bad news, on top of bad polling concerning upcoming Sen races.

Peter Coors, brewing magnate, and multi-millionaire, entered the Sen race this week, for the seat Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell is retiring from. Although Democrats still have a very strong candidate in Attorney General Ken Salazar, Coors has a good name in Colorado, has done a lot for the state, and can pour plenty of his own money into the race.

First however, he has to win the primary against former Rep. Bob Schaffer. Should he win the primary, I think he has a shot at holding the seat for Republicans.

The second piece of good news is that former Rep Tom Coburn is entering the Sen race in Oklahoma. Currently former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys, is the only viable competition for Coburn in the primary.

After a poll in late February that had supposed Dem nominee Brad Carson, 11pts ahead of Kirk Humphreys, Republicans nationwide began to get nervous. Coburn is an established Rep with a solid conservative voting record, and a good name in Oklahoma. Not to mention he represented the 2nd Congressional district, where he won solid victories 6 years in a row. The 2nd congressional district also happens to be the district that Brad Carson hails from and his strongest area of support. If Coburn could cut into the support that Carson enjoys on his home turf, it may spell doom for Dem chances at taking this seat back.
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CONDI ON THE HILL:

Condoleeza Rice did a geat job testifying today on the the Bush policy towards terrorism. She didn't let hard core Dems on the panel confuse, or slam her. She had concise, well thought through answers for all questions. She also refused to be talked over.


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Sunday, April 04, 2004

South Dakota Update: More Problems For Daschle

This past week, editor and publisher of the Lakota Journal, and Native American activist, Tim Giago, announced he will run as an independent against incumbent Sen and Dem minority leader, Tom Daschle. Giago, who originally intended to run against Daschle in the Dem primary, has decided to run as an independent specifically because he thinks he can do more damage to Daschle in the general election.

Right now Daschle has a few problems working against him:

1) A recent poll had Daschle leading Thune by 48% to 43%. Although Daschle is leading in this poll, it should be troubling to him that he is unable to break the 50% mark.

2) As an incumbent with the power that Daschle has, he should be much further ahead than he is now.

3) Daschle has been spending right and left to raise his approval ratings in the state. According to the above poll, this has not been as successful as Daschle would like.

4) President Bush being at the top of the ticket might have coattails that sways a few more votes Thune's way.

5) If the Native American vote usually makes up approx 8% of the total vote in South Dakota, and approx 6% goes to Daschle, Gaigo wouldn't need to take much away to give the race to Thune.
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